politics

Geopolitics Now Matters to Every CEO

In October, at our Two Small Fish Ventures AGM, I had the chance to sit down with Benjamin Bergen for a fireside chat. At the time, he was still leading the Council of Canadian Innovators. None of us knew he would soon become the new CEO of the CVCA. Looking back, the timing could not have been better.

I have known Benjamin for many years. When I was CEO of Wattpad, I worked closely with him through CCI, which played an important role in advocating for Canadian scaleups. That experience gave me a front row view of how policy, talent mobility, capital, and global markets intersect. I did not expect that perspective to become even more useful on the investor side, but today it is proving to be exactly that.

At Two Small Fish, our portfolio founders often hear us talk about our full cycle view of company building. We have built companies, operated them at global scale, navigated regulatory and geopolitical realities, and now invest across deep tech. We have seen the journey from the very first product decision all the way to commercialization. That experience matters today because geopolitics is no longer something happening far away. It is showing up directly in the work of founders.

The World Has Changed Irreversibly

Founders do not necessarily always think about politics, especially geopolitics. I certainly did not in my early days as a founder. But over the past year, the global environment has shifted in ways that affect talent, capital, customers, supply chains, and data. These forces are becoming part of the operating conditions for every innovative company.

At the AGM, Benjamin and I spent time unpacking what this new reality looks like.

  • Talent We spoke about the growing brain drain and how global mobility is changing. The tightening of the H1B program in the United States has created a ripple effect across the entire talent ecosystem. Early stage companies are rethinking where they build teams, and immigration policy is becoming a strategic consideration rather than an afterthought.
  • Capital The rise of protectionism and shifting global alliances are affecting how and where capital can move. The changing dynamics among the United States, China, and Canada raise new questions for both founders and investors. Some are beginning to view geographic diversification as a practical response to political uncertainty.
  • Customers National preference policies such as Buy Canadian and Buy American are becoming more common. These policies may begin as political statements, but they influence real procurement and partnership decisions. For founders, gaining early customers is no longer just about product and timing. There is a political dimension that needs to be understood.
  • Infrastructure and Defense We also talked about how export controls and security requirements are expanding. Technologies that once seemed purely commercial are now viewed through a strategic lens. Even young companies are discovering that they may be operating in areas that governments consider sensitive.
  • Supply Chains Global supply chains have shown their fragility in areas such as semiconductors, rare earth materials, and energy. These vulnerabilities create friction but also open new opportunities for companies building more resilient and regional alternatives.
  • Data Sovereignty Data localization and national data governance rules continue to spread. More countries want their data stored and processed within their borders. For companies operating internationally, this introduces new architectural and operational decisions much earlier in the journey.

Benjamin also shared how CCI’s new advisory group, Signa Strategies, is helping founders navigate exactly these types of challenges. It felt like a natural evolution of the work he has been doing for years.

As our conversation wrapped up, I was reminded how valuable it is to have seen this ecosystem from both sides. As a founder, I saw how talent, markets, and policy could quietly redirect a company’s path. Through CCI, I saw how national priorities and regulation shape the environment innovators work in. These experiences feel especially relevant now. The geopolitical questions that once appeared at the edges are moving closer to the center.

This is the environment founders are building in today. And with our full cycle experience, we hope to help them navigate it with clarity, context, and confidence.

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This blog is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. You are free to copy, redistribute, remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially, as long as appropriate credit is given.

Only Optionality Can Make Canada Strong and Free

The tariffs are coming. We all know this isn’t really about fentanyl—only 19 kg of the U.S.’s supply comes from Canada, while close to 10,000 kg was seized at the U.S. border.

Even if we solved this tiny issue, Trump would find something else—maybe he’d complain that the snow in NYC is due to cold air from Canada and slap us with another tariff.

Trump’s playbook is simple: weaponize everything at his disposal to get what he wants.

He’s imposing tariffs on everything from us. We can debate whether to slap tariffs on orange juice or hair dryers in response, but that won’t materially change the outcome. How we react now is just noise—he holds all the leverage anyway. Canada will suffer in the short term, no matter what.

But we shouldn’t let a crisis go to waste. This is a golden opportunity to fix systemic issues that were previously near impossible to address—like interprovincial trade barriers. Yet even fixing that won’t solve the root problem.

Stepping back, the real issue is one of the first principles of leadership: Optionality.

Having alternatives always provides leverage. This principle applies broadly—not just to negotiations, but also to fundraising, supplier relationships, operations, company survival, M&A, and beyond—including leading a country.

Trump understands leverage better than most. This isn’t just about negotiation—even if we reach a deal this time, any agreement with him isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.

As a country, we are far too dependent on the U.S., and Trump knows it. Only by addressing our lack of optionality can we deal with him—and future U.S. presidents—on equal footing.

There is no quick fix. Only a new, decisive, visionary Prime Minister can guide Canada out of this mess.

The only way forward is to leverage what we do best—energy, natural resources, AI, and more—to create true optionality. As the world shifts toward intangible assets, ironically, our proximity to the U.S. is becoming less of a hindrance to diversification.

We must control our own destiny. We cannot allow any single country—U.S. or otherwise—to hold us hostage.

Only optionality can make Canada strong and free.

P.S. This blog is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. You are free to copy, redistribute, remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially, as long as appropriate credit is given.